Current Forecasts

For more information, please see the main Michigan Dashboard

Info column

Updated April 2, 2020 at 00:24 EDT

Data is shown as circles and grey shaded regions indicate uncertainty bounds for the best fit 95% across 1000 simulations. Hover over plots to see data values and interactive menu, and scroll down to see additional plots. Counties included: Wayne (including Detroit), Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, and Livingston.

Current Summary for SE MI

  • The current best fit across all model simulations for Southeast Michigan gives a forecast of:
    • April 9, 2020 (1 week): roughly 31410 cumulative laboratory-confirmed cases
    • April 23, 2020 (3 weeks): roughly 85000 cumulative laboratory-confirmed cases
  • The current best fit across model simulations projects:
    • April 9, 2020 (1 week): roughly 2400 hospitalized patients (beds needed) with roughly 410 in ICU
    • April 23, 2020 (3 weeks): roughly 5000 hospitalized patients (beds needed) with roughly 860 in ICU

Note that the model is a work in progress and being updated as the epidemic progresses. Because we are still making improvements and including new data in the model, these results are highly preliminary and uncertain. The forecasts shown here also do not account for the ongoing changes in social distancing.

For more information about the transmission model and methods, please see the ‘About this model’ tab.

Plot Column

1-week forecast of cumulative COVID-19 cases in SE MI

3-week forecast of cumulative COVID-19 deaths in SE MI

3-week forecast of COVID-19 ICU occupancy (i.e. beds needed)

3-week forecast of current COVID-19 patients needing O\(_2\) support

Plot Column

3-week forecast of cumulative COVID-19 cases in SE MI

3-week forecast of COVID-19 hospitalized patients (i.e. beds needed)

3-week forecast of current COVID-19 patients needing ventilators

__